Estimating the severity of landscape degradation in future management scenarios based on modeling the dynamics of Hoor Al‑Azim International Wetland in Iran‑Iraq border

Abstract

Temporal and spatial changes in land cover in wetland ecosystems indicate the severity of
degradation. Understanding such processes in the past, present, and future might be necessary for
managing any type of development plan. Therefore, this research has monitored and analyzed the
Hoor Al-Azim International Wetland to determine the orientation of its changes in various future
scenarios. Wetland status modeling was conducted using developed hybrid approaches and cellular
automata along with evaluating the accuracy of the modeled maps. The dynamics of the landscape
were simulated using a higher accuracy approach in three scenarios—Water Conservation, Water
Decreasing, and Business-as-Usual- to get the level of degradation of the wetland. The results showed
that the amount of water in the wetland has decreased in all three periods, and the salt lands and
vegetation have undergone drastic changes. The water bodies experienced a reduction of 148,139 ha
between 1985 and 2000, followed by a decrease of 9107 ha during the 2000–2015 period. However,
based on the results, these developments are expressed better by the developed hybrid approach
than the CA-MC approach and are more reliable for future simulation. The figure of merit index, which
assesses the hybrid model’s accuracy, yielded a value of 18.12%, while the CA-MC model’s accuracy
was estimated at 14.42%. The assessment of degradation in hexagonal units showed the least
degradation in the water conservation scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2030.